Yep it's an old crash,
I don't know why this crash nags at me, but it does. I've been thinking about it for almost a year now. Anyway, I'm time building for my CPL now (I forgot to mention I got my license a while ago, thank you everyone for all the help!) Anyway so I'm time building and I figure I want to time build along the predicted flight path. I have gathered a fair amount of weather data, I am just unable to find historical winds aloft. I heard from another pilot that they were very strong that day, but I have no direction or speed. Does anyone know where that data could be found? I'll put the weather data I have so far below.
https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2021 ... ziKdxTFpf0
Cessna 185 29 April 1982
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TwinOtterFan
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TwinOtterFan
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I do have winds on the ground but not aloft.
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Squaretail
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Remember that winds have a tendency to increase speed and veer as altitude increases.
The details of my life are quite inconsequential...
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TwinOtterFan
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Yes I figured worse case I could use that as a best guess.
The biggest hurdle is figuring out his intended flight path, I know the established VFR route was extensively searched plus it is along a highway so everyone figures it would have been found by now.
The RCMP have mentioned they think he may have taken a different route. The 185 has a high enough service ceiling to fly direct but not sure if he had oxygen or cared. I figured he either tried direct or tried to fly canyons.
The biggest hurdle is figuring out his intended flight path, I know the established VFR route was extensively searched plus it is along a highway so everyone figures it would have been found by now.
The RCMP have mentioned they think he may have taken a different route. The 185 has a high enough service ceiling to fly direct but not sure if he had oxygen or cared. I figured he either tried direct or tried to fly canyons.
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Squaretail
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They shouldn't have needed O2 for as short of a hop as they needed. However, if 5 adults were in a 185, while it can pack a lot, but would be running out of performance higher up with that load. If they took the direct route, they need to be at least 11,000' to clear everything, going direct puts them right over some of the highest points though. If they went north more like the Red Deer Creek area, they wouldn't have needed as much. If they were flying lower, threading the needle through Howse pass may have been fairly risky. Especially if there was extensive cloud cover in the area.
Be careful if you're trying to trace such a route. The Mountains usually take a plane every year. Personally its unsurprising that stuff doesn't get found out there. The world is a big place to get lost in. 3/4 of the year the crash site is going to be covered in snow. If its in the trees, its going to be harder to see, even if you know where its at.
Be careful if you're trying to trace such a route. The Mountains usually take a plane every year. Personally its unsurprising that stuff doesn't get found out there. The world is a big place to get lost in. 3/4 of the year the crash site is going to be covered in snow. If its in the trees, its going to be harder to see, even if you know where its at.
The details of my life are quite inconsequential...
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TwinOtterFan
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For now I am not planning any flights, just working with data, I'm waiting for the the RCMP Constable to get back to me with the known points that people have searched online and they have gone out and verified that it was not the crash.
Coming from Fox Creek and enroute to Prince George I think he would have taken the established VFR route that enters the mountains near Jasper and moves West then North.
Be assured I will not be entering the mountains anytime soon, I have some sim instrument time next week, then night rating then time building my CPL, probably going to hop across the street and join the flying club for some tail dragger instruction as well.
Right now I have been using Google Earth to scan for potential targets and then eliminating them based off of the RCMP's data. Google Earth allows you to revert the map data to older images so in most areas you can get lucky and find different seasons.
If I can count the mountain flying course and mountain flying checkout as dual instruction towards my CPL then I will take that as well. Couldn't hurt.
Coming from Fox Creek and enroute to Prince George I think he would have taken the established VFR route that enters the mountains near Jasper and moves West then North.
Be assured I will not be entering the mountains anytime soon, I have some sim instrument time next week, then night rating then time building my CPL, probably going to hop across the street and join the flying club for some tail dragger instruction as well.
Right now I have been using Google Earth to scan for potential targets and then eliminating them based off of the RCMP's data. Google Earth allows you to revert the map data to older images so in most areas you can get lucky and find different seasons.
If I can count the mountain flying course and mountain flying checkout as dual instruction towards my CPL then I will take that as well. Couldn't hurt.
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Squaretail
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I haven't seen anything that indicates that the pilot would have taken that route. Going direct would save about 90 miles. If clouds were a factor the VFR route's worst spot would be the lake pass east of Valemount. A more direct route may put them in trouble with some higher terrain.Coming from Fox Creek and enroute to Prince George I think he would have taken the established VFR route that enters the mountains near Jasper and moves West then North.
The details of my life are quite inconsequential...
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TwinOtterFan
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Basing my math off of the observed weather data from CYEG and CYZU with the OAT at 39F and the dew point at 16F the cloud base would be 5227'AGL so taking the average between the two lets call ground 2500' ASL that would that put the cloud base at 7727' ASL?Squaretail wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:59 amIf clouds were a factor the VFR route's worst spot would be the lake pass east of Valemount. A more direct route may put them in trouble with some higher terrain.Coming from Fox Creek and enroute to Prince George I think he would have taken the established VFR route that enters the mountains near Jasper and moves West then North.
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Squaretail
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Which doesn't give a lot of room if they were running under it through the pass at Moose lake, keeping in mind that the height of cloud may be even lower in the narrower passes, and the Fraser river valley provides extra moisture. While Red Pass is at 3500', the sides of the valley there are the closest and rise above the 5000' mark pretty quick. That also being adjacent to Mt. Robson, probably means a higher probability of ugly weather on a marginal day. Looking at the map, if one made the mistake of flying up the wrong valley at Moose lake, to the right instead of left, you would be heading into a bit more of a box.
There's a lot of ways trips like this can go wrong, on what otherwise may seem like an ok day. On the flat if you were to tell me the clouds are at 7000' and the ground is about 3500', you'd be fine. In a valley where to stay under the could you had about two miles of lateral room to maneuver, much less maybe to be map reading in, you're in a bit of trouble. Especially considering in 1982 they probably didn't have a GPS.
There's a lot of ways trips like this can go wrong, on what otherwise may seem like an ok day. On the flat if you were to tell me the clouds are at 7000' and the ground is about 3500', you'd be fine. In a valley where to stay under the could you had about two miles of lateral room to maneuver, much less maybe to be map reading in, you're in a bit of trouble. Especially considering in 1982 they probably didn't have a GPS.
The details of my life are quite inconsequential...
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TwinOtterFan
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Okay so weather was not the greatest, there was no flight plan filed and I am not sure if he was instrument rated. I was able to find the original equipment list and W&B from his plane from 1980, from Cessna. Would someone be able to tell me if he would have been able to fly IFR with the equipment listed?
Also, on the day of the crash there was 1 Pilot and 4 passengers, I see a note jotted on the right that indicated 5x180 and it is listed in the column for Center Passengers (6 place version) is that a normal way to do it? or should it have had 4x180 in the center and then his weight in the pilot seat?
Also, on the day of the crash there was 1 Pilot and 4 passengers, I see a note jotted on the right that indicated 5x180 and it is listed in the column for Center Passengers (6 place version) is that a normal way to do it? or should it have had 4x180 in the center and then his weight in the pilot seat?
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