Is General Aviation Dieing?

[ScudRunner-d95]

I hit the odd small airport every now and then, its seams to me they use to bustling with activity. Now all I see is the odd training aircraft do a touch and go.
The baby boomer generation who ushered in the golden age of GA are loosing their medicals, the cost of aviation is through the roof.


Maybe its just me, but I don't have much hope for aviation in this country outside commercial operations. I see it when I check out the aviation classifieds the same aircraft on the market for years. It's not just that some are hunks of junk but I think the market is disappearing. Younger generations of pilots are priced out of the market with costs. Perhaps it will come down as a aircraft appear on the market with those lost medicals and bring acquisition costs down.


I hope I am wrong but I don't hold much hope for this industry.

[Liquid Charlie]

The smart phone generation much rather fly drones

[goldeneagle]

I bought my first airplane in '76.  A spot to tie it down cost me 50 bucks a year.  Liability insurance was on the order of $150 or so.  There was something like 50 private airplanes at the airport, it was a small town of around 1500 people.  Today, that same airport, probly half a dozen private planes left.  My understanding is, spot to tie down runs on the order of 500 a month now.

Somewhere along the line, general aviation went from being considered an 'essential' to a luxury and hence a cash cow.  It's been priced out of the reach of joe average.

Yes, the younger generation will prefer the drone, because they can afford it.  Cant afford a real airplane anymore.  Want to buy a new light aircraft today, it's price is worse than a condo in Vancouver.  Hence the strong value held by 50 yr old airplanes that would have been made into beer cans 20 years ago if they still made affordable airplanes.  You can thank the legal industry in the USA for that.

[ScudRunner-d95]

Just pulled out the inflation calculator our actual overlord provide free to us peasants  [url=https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/relat ... alculator/]https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/relat ... alculator/[/url]


That $50 buck tie down should equal $217.21, from your comments the demands is down yet the price has more than doubled.


From Wikipedia


[quote]The 1977 "N" model 172 also introduced rudder trim as an option and standard "pre-selectable" flaps. The price was US$22,300, with the Skyhawk/100 II selling for [b]US$29,950.[/b][14][/quote]


http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/


Cost adjusted for inflation $123,057.43 USD

From Flying Magazine:
[quote]The 180 hp 172S, referred to by Cessna as the 172-SP, goes for [b]$307,500[/b]; the 160 hp 172R sells for [b]$274,900.[/b] Then again, these airplanes, despite their rivets shining in the sun, are thoroughly modern, highly evolved examples of the four-seat, entry-level general aviation airplane.[/quote]




Im doing pretty good, I could finance 123K for a new 172 but jesus christ 307 for a new 172 wouldn't if I could.

[Colonel]

Back in the day, very few individuals bought a new 172.

FBO's would buy them from Cessna and fly them 1000
hours a year (new aircraft is reliable and requires no
maintenance) and then sell them to normal people after
they had been flogged.

Back in 1971 my father bought our (used 1968) Maule for
$11,000 cash which people at the time thought was a
staggering amount of money.  I think our house in Kingston
cost $38,000 not too long before.

Given that the same house might be worth around $380,000
today, that would put the used Maule at $110,000 comparatively.

Back in 2000 we bought a 1996 Pitts S-2B with 53 hours on
the tachometer for $180,000 plus all the taxes and import costs
which took it well over $200k.

I'm not sure certified airplanes have ever been cheap.

It's a good thing Vans came along, and proposed the novel concept
of an aluminum airplane with a Lycoming to the homebuilders,
because that's what everyone is flying now.

[goldeneagle]

[quote author=ScudRunner link=topic=8171.msg22613#msg22613 date=1522291937]
Just pulled out the inflation calculator our actual overlord provide free to us peasants  [url=https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/relat ... alculator/]https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/relat ... alculator/[/url]


That $50 buck tie down should equal $217.21, from your comments the demands is down yet the price has more than doubled.

[/quote]

Except my cost then was 50 bucks PER YEAR, the cost today is 500 bucks PER MONTH.  So no, it's not just doubled, it's closer to a factor of 25 after factoring in the inflation.

[Nark1]

My home airport, not a whole lot of open hangars.


I think the Ol Col nailed it though: home built aeroplanes are the ones keeping GA alive. 
Look at Sun n Fun or AirVenture. 75% of the $pent monies is from the homebuilders.




I don't blame them.  I might drop a dollar for an RV 14 kit this summer.


Maybe...

[ScudRunner-d95]

The home builders also get better toys than the certified allow. Just take a look for the non certified vs certified avionics capabilities.

[anofly]

i am pretty convinced that there well may be no one to sell my plane to , when i hang up the keys..... RV's etc are fun, but the sky is not full of them. I paid 7000 for a half share of the 1956 C 172, in 1981, there was a 1976 c172 on the field that was beautiful, and it was 22000.The flight schools were busy and they would put a quick 1000 hours on them and sell them fast and get new ones...

[Alcoholism]

I would love to purchase a SE but know if I ever want to sell, it'll take some time unless discounted significantly .  The current prices surely can't be sustained, especially as the market continues to get flooded with homebuilts, and fewer licensed pilots, but no one wants to sell for less than what they paid. 
It's not even affordable to rent, and the younger gen will see that they can purchase an airline ticket to go somewhere for equivalent amount.  Something will have to give.