Looking ahead

[Liquid_Charlie]

Covid has flipped the "reset button" and I can see a real purge in how people will fly in the future. I truly believe that the whole model of canadian internal and xborder routes will change. Hopefully for the best. Deregulation brought about this stupid notion the we could apply the american style of hub and spoke to canada. The reality is that we are basically east to west for the populated areas and 98% of canadians live within 100km of the US border. The northern routes will not support crazy competition and as we can see now the dropping marginal routes is the flavour of the day. Unfortunately I can see these routes never being serviced again by major associated feeders. The emergence of independents like Porter will fill this gap and gone will be the days of buying a single ticket on one carrier.

The absurdity of the amount of money spent by the level one carriers to implement commuters just after deregulation and the amount of money spent to even get air ontario into the jazz livery was crazy. I'm thinking we will see a leaner and more cost effect platform emerge. This will certainly be at the expense of the potential of the new pilot pool. The clearing of furloughed pilots will be slower.

I don't want to see stagnation but what we had prior to covid was insane and was destined for a major crash even without covid. The pandemic just magnified it and there was a vertical drop from the crest to the trough. Far more painful but the decline was coming regardless.

The reality is that AC and WS don't need those places north of Toronto and along that 100 km line from the US border(possibly edmonton is the only exception). would make more money if they just let smaller airlines fill the gap.

When green does finally take over there likely will not be any short haul flight (talking airlines here) the commute will all be land based, high speed and high tech.

[David MacRay]

I believe you’re right.

I’m interested on your opinion about ground commuter travel up north.

My opinion about high speed rail service north of Edmonton is , I don’t think it’s going to happen before electric planes. Not because I think electric planes will be coming anytime soon. But because the cost to build and maintain rails needed to go fast up there is going to remain way too high for the foreseeable future.

I do wonder. When things settle will West Jet and possibly Air Canada continue with service between Edmonton and Yellowknife? Or will all the commuting to Diavik and other similar projects be done by chartered planes or Canadian North etc.

Also at this time I believe Fort mcmurray will be continue to be served at least weekly to and from Edmonton and possibly Calgary by WestJet and maybe one or more competitors. First because people working there are still making higher wages and second many of them either desire to go to those cities and/or don’t want to move up there at all. Of course there will continue to be people who move there for five to ten years and never leave. I don’t know if people stopped commuting during this last year or not. I strongly suspect there were people driving back and forth from camps as they usually would for most of the time.

Sorry that turned into a pretty long winded way to say. “Fort McMurray and maybe Yellowknife too.”

[Liquid_Charlie]

Speaking from experience YK has lost their "quality" service when the level one carriers decided to move in. A dash between YK and edmonton/calgary - give me a break. The spreading plague of dash 8 on routes they were never designed for is ridiculous. The last time I went to YK I went all the way from winnipeg to YK on a dash8, via edmonton, painful and taking coffee makers out of the aircraft and serve instant coffee - fuck me.

Why didn't the majors support code share (they did with canadian north - AC) but they got greedy and what this did was give YK travellers better ticket rates at the expense of the rest of the north. ON northern routes carriers were forced to increase rates to offset YK-EG reductions and poor loads.

When I flew the 72 on YK-EG it was 1+15 and on the 73 20 minutes longer all with full cabin service and meals. People loved it but the buck rules and some passengers would rather sit on a bed of nails than pay a few extra dollars. Silly people.

Fort Mac - I spent several years doing fire bags charters from YEG on the 73, back in the day. The airspace was crazy and far more direct site charters than going through fort mac. I imagine that's all changed now with the downturn. A Dash for sked there is reasonable but with YEG dropping a lot of direct roots to elsewhere in canada the route structure actually sucks. YYC to fort mac should be a jet route.

Hi speed trains in canada not likely a reality - the tracks are shit and and to build new high speed track is prohibitive. Passenger levels would need to increase dramatically to even improve Toronto to Montreal/Ottawa corridor.

Aircraft will be for long haul and eventually low orbit hyper speed. I think super sonic as we know it now isn't not cost effective. Maybe lighter than air flight- low and slow in luxury is better

I was looking into the future farther ahead. Hyperloop will make so much sense and blow short haul air travel out of the water. Linking major centres like Calgay/Edmonton Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal. Such tech will also get trucks off the open road and EV can take over for local delivery. Even wpg/regina/saskatoon and west to calgary. With the amount of freight from edmonton to YK a loop to Straw Creek (Hay River) area could also be viable.

Too bad I won't be around to see all this

[David MacRay]

Yeah I agree with too many carriers making flying everywhere painful compared to last century.

Progress I guess.

If they could run something less expensive than the Dash 8 they would. Funny, riding in Alaskan Air’s dash 8s is luxurious, compared to most I have had the misfortune of getting crammed into.

[CaptNerdly]

After the "Great Reset" nobody will be physically travelling anywhere except for the chosen elite. It will all be Zoom and virtual reality. Remember, stay home, stay safe!
Or else.

[Liquid_Charlie]

I see that the GNWT has taken the first step in acknowledging vaccinations, dropping isolation to 8 days. They had the acted quickly from the get go and got the results. Ontario is such a fucked up place. Nurse and front line works are not vaccinated and if they do they need to go book and stand in line on the street. Alberta did it all in house and they have the nurses and such vaccinated.

I can't imagine how it is for the nurses working ICU and not be vaccinated. Right now a nurse in Ontario cannot book off or refuse to go in on a day off. If they do the hospital sends the police to pick them up. The hospitals are not allowing holidays but will not pay out for them and are not allowing carry over of holidays.

They are also threatened with criminal charges if the resign. Their union has refused help. I have advised a friend of mine to divert the dues check-off to a charity and spread the word. The only way to get a union's attention (except for de-cert) - no money no funny. It will be interesting if others will follow. Health care works are burnt out and not getting any help. Just threats.

Ford has dropped the ball here in Ontario.