Scudrunners

...because I think the music is about to stop.

Stock market is languishing, auto makers are closing plants, oil price is falling, trade wars flaring up... all harbingers of a downturn.
Might be a good time for pilots with a high seniority number to hunker down.  Might be a better time for pilots with low seniority numbers to stock up on craft dinner.

Music doesn't play forever.  Of course most are still dancing.

I sure hope not, my current job pays decently but otherwise sucks.

Well, I guess it's a good thing I was too lazy to study up for the CPL written. I was considering it.

It’s taken about 16 years from CPL checkride in YXX, to sitting in a seat that I’d be happy to hunker down in. 

I won’t move from this seat until I retire, 20-25years from now.  Barring any mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcies, etc...

I’d say bring on the recession.  My company thrived in 08/09, let’s see what happens during the next one.

[quote author=mcrit link=topic=9394.msg25868#msg25868 date=1543326160]
...because I think the music is about to stop.

Stock market is languishing, auto makers are closing plants, oil price is falling, trade wars flaring up... all harbingers of a downturn.
Might be a good time for pilots with a high seniority number to hunker down.  Might be a better time for pilots with low seniority numbers to stock up on craft dinner.
[/quote]

I'd have to agree with you. Several European Airlines have gone under in the past few months and it looks like more to come.

Not the time to be at the bottom of any list imho.

Also smart not to get into too much debt - build up your savings instead.

From experience the only thing you can really do is to have the Type Ratings and experience that the market demands - I don't buy into the "too big to fail" mentality. Air Canada was in real danger of going bankrupt in 2009.

[quote author=Eric Janson link=topic=9394.msg25878#msg25878 date=1543392163]
- I don't buy into the "too big to fail" mentality. Air Canada was in real danger of going bankrupt in 2009.
[/quote]

Could be a perfect storm for them.  Economic downturn, Western based conservative government and a public distaste for bailouts after the whole GM Oshawa incident.

Keep in mind where AC’s head office is (by act of Parliament).  The govt will bail them out.

Chair secured, back up plan solid.  Wife surprisingly on board.  Win-win.

I am not disagreeing that a downturn is inevitable but,

Falling oil prices are usually good for most industrial economies. GM is shutting down factories but they are profitable and setting themselves up to remain that way in a downturn. It is really just a well-timed re-organization. With so many jobs available out there in America, the workers will be snapped up, although the overall package for them may not be as good as it was at GM.

High tech stocks are over-priced. Time for a healthy correction.