Time to find a chair?

[mcrit]

[quote author=Trey Kule link=topic=9394.msg25896#msg25896 date=1543540241]
Keep in mind where AC’s head office is (by act of Parliament).  The govt will bail them out.
[/quote]
Maybe.  But if we get a conservative majority government with little to no representation from Quebec (like the last conservative majority) a bailout might not be a sure thing.

[mcrit]

[quote author=JW Scud link=topic=9394.msg25901#msg25901 date=1543601665]
I am not disagreeing that a downturn is inevitable but,

Falling oil prices are usually good for most industrial economies. GM is shutting down factories but they are profitable and setting themselves up to remain that way in a downturn. It is really just a well-timed re-organization. With so many jobs available out there in America, the workers will be snapped up, although the overall package for them may not be as good as it was at GM.

High tech stocks are over-priced. Time for a healthy correction.
[/quote]

I hope you are right.  I keep looking at an overpriced housing market which has been paid for by credit extended by overstretched banks; looks an awful lot like the Japanese collapse of the late 90s

[JW Scud]

[quote author=mcrit link=topic=9394.msg25905#msg25905 date=1543608174]
[quote author=JW Scud link=topic=9394.msg25901#msg25901 date=1543601665]
I am not disagreeing that a downturn is inevitable but,

Falling oil prices are usually good for most industrial economies. GM is shutting down factories but they are profitable and setting themselves up to remain that way in a downturn. It is really just a well-timed re-organization. With so many jobs available out there in America, the workers will be snapped up, although the overall package for them may not be as good as it was at GM.

High tech stocks are over-priced. Time for a healthy correction.
[/quote]

I hope you are right.  I keep looking at an overpriced housing market which has been paid for by credit extended by overstretched banks; looks an awful lot like the Japanese collapse of the late 90s
[/quote]

I remember reading about this for several years in Canada. The about a week ago I saw a headline that somehow, we had made it through without a crash. Didn't read the article though.

[mcrit]

[quote author=JW Scud link=topic=9394.msg25910#msg25910 date=1543625411]
[quote author=mcrit link=topic=9394.msg25905#msg25905 date=1543608174]
[quote author=JW Scud link=topic=9394.msg25901#msg25901 date=1543601665]
I am not disagreeing that a downturn is inevitable but,

Falling oil prices are usually good for most industrial economies. GM is shutting down factories but they are profitable and setting themselves up to remain that way in a downturn. It is really just a well-timed re-organization. With so many jobs available out there in America, the workers will be snapped up, although the overall package for them may not be as good as it was at GM.

High tech stocks are over-priced. Time for a healthy correction.
[/quote]

I hope you are right.  I keep looking at an overpriced housing market which has been paid for by credit extended by overstretched banks; looks an awful lot like the Japanese collapse of the late 90s
[/quote]

I remember reading about this for several years in Canada. The about a week ago I saw a headline that somehow, we had made it through without a crash. Didn't read the article though.
[/quote]

There is a book 'How To Survive When the Bubble Bursts' that details how we avoided the subprime crisis of 2008.  The gist of it is that the government underwrote a ton of mortgage debt and essentially kicked the problem down the road.  If our housing bubble bursts, (which is likely, the federal government will be on the hook for billions.  Add that to our already huge debt and we could be the next Greece.  Yes, I sound like Chicken Little, but it's all in the name of lively discussion. :)

[Eric Janson]

[quote author=mcrit link=topic=9394.msg25911#msg25911 date=1543628803]
[quote author=JW Scud link=topic=9394.msg25910#msg25910 date=1543625411]
[quote author=mcrit link=topic=9394.msg25905#msg25905 date=1543608174]
[quote author=JW Scud link=topic=9394.msg25901#msg25901 date=1543601665]
I am not disagreeing that a downturn is inevitable but,

Falling oil prices are usually good for most industrial economies. GM is shutting down factories but they are profitable and setting themselves up to remain that way in a downturn. It is really just a well-timed re-organization. With so many jobs available out there in America, the workers will be snapped up, although the overall package for them may not be as good as it was at GM.

High tech stocks are over-priced. Time for a healthy correction.
[/quote]

I hope you are right.  I keep looking at an overpriced housing market which has been paid for by credit extended by overstretched banks; looks an awful lot like the Japanese collapse of the late 90s
[/quote]

I remember reading about this for several years in Canada. The about a week ago I saw a headline that somehow, we had made it through without a crash. Didn't read the article though.
[/quote]

There is a book 'How To Survive When the Bubble Bursts' that details how we avoided the subprime crisis of 2008.  The gist of it is that the government underwrote a ton of mortgage debt and essentially kicked the problem down the road.  If our housing bubble bursts, (which is likely, the federal government will be on the hook for billions.  Add that to our already huge debt and we could be the next Greece.  Yes, I sound like Chicken Little, but it's all in the name of lively discussion. :)
[/quote]

It's inevitable - you can't just keep kicking the can down the road.

The only reason we haven't had  a massive crash is that interest rates are being kept artificially low. As soon as these increase it becomes impossible to repay the debt and the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

2008 will look like nothing by comparison imho.

The only question is when not if imho.

[Rookie Pilot]

I've been saying this for a while.  Most people laugh at me, and carry on getting 80K trucks on credit, and 600k (Or much more) mortgages. 

I feel sad for whats coming, for others including my friends, even though I'll make a lot of money on it.

Debt matters.

[Colonel]

Not according to Alan Greenspan. 

Remember when we were told that he was the smartest guy in the world?

[Liquid Charlie]

If you are a junior or lower time pilot -- 5000 hr or less the best security for a job is in the north. Fuck the level 1 and 2 carriers, recessions don't effect the north as much, people still need to eat and even during ww2 there was no rationing in the north. You work for your money but at least you have a job. In all my years I have never been on the street, always employed yet I have compatriots that have been furloughed as many as 3 times.

[Colonel]

Not everyone wants to spend a lifetime in the north.

Great for a kid, but ...

(disclaimer - I have the word "Lake" in my place of birth
on my birth certificate :)

Walking the dog yesterday, down the street from me, my
neighbor's front yard:

[img width=392 height=500][/img]

I personally suffer from Post Traumatic Snow Disorder.  I
never want to see snow or ice or slush ever again, or feel
the pain of the cold wind blowing hard out of the north, so
painful it burns exposed skin, and it hurts to breathe.

I just want blue sky and warm sunshine, every day, after
spending half a century moving tons of snow, year after
year after year after year.  I think I've earned it.

I don't want a pickle.  I just want to ride on my motor-sickle.

PS  Another neighbor's driveway yesterday:

[img width=500 height=337][/img]

Not a good vehicle for the snow and ice and slush and salt,
even with four snow tires on it!

[Rookie Pilot]

Unnamed AvCan posters think an alll weather portfolio is Bitcoin at 20,000, Bombardier at 20 bucks, and Tilray at 200.